Groundhog Day is a tradition observed in the United States on February 2nd of every year. It comes from a popular tradition dating back to 1887 that if a groundhog leaves its underground winter home on this day and sees its shadow, it will go back to its den and cold weather will last for six more weeks. By contrast, if it does not see its shadow, spring will arrive early. The Groundhog Day ceremony held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, centering on a groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil, has become the most frequently-attended ceremony. On February 2nd 2024, Punxsutawney Phil came out and didn’t see his shadow, meaning that we should expect an early spring. Or should we? While Groundhog Day remains popular in the 21st century, studies have found no consistent pattern between a groundhog seeing its shadow and the arrival time of spring weather. In fact, one study found that Phil was right only 39% of the time, which is particularly bad, since Phil could flip a coin instead of relying on his shadow and predict whether there will be 6 more weeks of cold weather correctly around 50% of the time. So does this mean that the groundhog tradition is meaningless? I don’t think so. If Phil is not a good weatherman, perhaps he can be redirected towards something different: instead of the change of season, he could predict which team will win the Super Bowl. If Phil sees his shadow, then the NFC team will win. On the contrary, if Phil does not see his shadow, the AFC team will win. If you look at Super Bowl outcomes from the last 10 years, you will find that the shadow-NFC/no shadow-AFC association occurred in 6 of the years. Since 6/10 is 60%, Phil does a much better job predicting the Super Bowl winner than he does the weather. If my theory is correct, since Phil did not see his shadow in 2024, the AFC team should be more likely to win this year. So, in a game of Chiefs versus 49ers, Phil (and I) will be rooting for the Chiefs. Tune in to the Super Bowl on February 11th this year to see if Phil is right. If so, perhaps Phil should move from Punxsutawney to Las Vegas.
football
Jesse James’s Catch That Wasn’t a Catch
Photos courtesy of Brian Kunst, @brianleestudios On Sunday, December 17th, the Pittsburgh Steelers played the New England Patriots in a crucial AFC showdown to help determine the top seed for the playoffs. Late in the fourth quarter, the Steelers took over possession. On the first play of the drive, Ben Roethlisberger threw a pass to wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster that looked to be a short gain, but he evaded most of the Pats’ secondary and came out with a 69-yard catch. On the very next play, Big Ben threw a pass to the tight end, Jesse James, that was caught, for a Pittsburgh touchdown! Everyone was sure that it was a touchdown, even most of the Patriots. Normally, the other team will signal the sign for an incomplete pass when the play is even close. No Patriots player did that. Even the Pats’ coach, Bill Belichick, looked like he wasn’t in the mood to dispute the call. Tony Romo, the analyst, said confidently, “This is going to stand. What a touchdown!” When the ref announced the ruling that it was overturned, Romo said, ” Ooooooooh, oh my god!!” The reason that the touchdown was overturned is that a player who completes the catch must “survive the ground.” Jesse James appeared to catch the ball, pull it back in, then reach it to the end zone. He had control of the ball in the end zone, but then the ball hit the ground and became loose, even though it was still in his hands. Even with the botched call, the Steelers were only down by three, and they were definitely in field goal range, so they could just run down the clock and make the field goal, right? Wrong. Nobody really considered that it would be an incomplete pass, so Ben Roethlisberger didn’t even talk with Todd Haley, the offensive coordinator. The Steelers picked up a yard on the next play, so it was third down with the clock running. The normal thing to do would be to spike the ball and bring up a chip shot field goal to send the game into overtime. Instead, the Steelers tried a fake spike. When a fake spike works, it is because the defense is on their heels and thinks that the QB will throw the ball into the ground and then they can focus again. The Pats were less confused than the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger threw a pass that was tipped up into the air and caught… by the Patriots. If the play to Jesse James had stood, the Patriots would have had 28 seconds to score a touchdown. With quarterback Tom Brady on your team, it could have happened. But everyone can agree that the call changed the whole game.
Why is No Team Picking Up Colin Kaepernick?
Colin Kaepernick playing for San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on September 9, 2012. Photo by Mike Morbeck (courtesy of wiki commons). If you do not follow either football or politics, then you might not know who Colin Kaepernick is. He is a former NFL quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers who now cannot get a job in football. The reason? He knelt for the national anthem to draw attention to the unfair treatment of African-American people across the country. Boom. He lost his job. NFL teams say that he is not good enough, but he is clearly better than other quarterbacks standing in for their injured leaders. Who would you rather have on your team: Tom Savage (Houston Texans) or Colin Kaepernick? When DeShaun Watson tore his ACL, who started the next game for the Texans? Tom Savage! Let’s give some credit to Tom Savage, though. He has a pretty cool name. When Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone, who did the Packers send in to replace him? Brett Hundley. And on Brett Hundley’s first throw, he threw it and it landed softly in Xavier Rhodes’ hands! Unfortunately for him, though, Xavier Rhodes is on the Vikings. Better luck next time, Brett. No team–not the Packers, not the Texans–has tried to sign Colin Kaepernick. No NFL player, coach, owner, or executive can honestly say that Tom Savage or Brett Hundley is more talented than Colin Kaepernick. Colin Kaepernick is 30, while Tom Savage is 27 and Brett Hundley is 24. Tom Savage and Colin Kaepernick don’t have a very significant age difference. You could try to make the case that Hundley is a promising prospect, but in my opinion nothing is very promising about him. When a reporter asked the Packers’ coach Mike McCarthy about replacing Brett Hundley with Colin Kaepernick, Mike McCarthy was not very happy. “Did you just listen to that question I just answered? I got three years invested in Brett Hundley. Two years invested in Joe Callahan. The quarterback room is exactly where it needs to be. OK? We’re fortunate to have a great quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. We’re committed to the path that we’re on. We need to play better as a football team.” Source: ESPN. Today, so many players have kneeled or protested. A few weeks ago, some teams did not even come out of the tunnel during the national anthem. Michael Bennett, the Seattle Seahawks’ defensive end even sat for the national anthem. The entire Green Bay Packers team locked arms for the national anthem. Why has nobody dropped those players? Colin Kaepernick has recently filed a lawsuit against the NFL based on what happened to him. Isn’t is wrong to lose your job just because you peacefully protested your rights?
